A Conjecture of Chinese Monetary Policy Rule: Evidence from
Survey Data, Markov Regime Switching and Drifting Coefficients

Yanbin Chen


Zhen Huo

This paper studies a modified Chinese Taylorís rule with money supply
growth rate as the intermediate target. We develop survey data to measure the expected inflation and use the real marginal cost as a proxy for the output gap. The Markov regime switching model, the TVP model and the split sample OLS estimation are employed to estimate the changing coefficients of the monetary reaction function. We find that there were two structural changes in the Chinese monetary policy rule, which take the form of discrete jumps rather than continuous adjustments. Besides, the Chinese central bank is not purely forward-looking as most literature assumed.

Key Words: Taylorís rule; Survey data; Real marginal cost; TVP model; Markov regime switching model.
JEL Classification Numbers: E52, C32, C50.